Prediction Saturday: Super Tuesday, Super Bowl

Music Lovers will probably like this 4 minute Obama video; it is very “artsy”. I found it cute; Barbara was moved by it:

Predictions:

Superbowl: Patriots go 19-0, but it isn’t easy. The Giants cover the spread but the Pats pull it out 27-20.
Super Tuesday: on the Republican side, John McCain pulls away and almost wraps it up. Reason: more Republican states are “winner take all” in terms of delegates.

Democratic Side The issue is more complicated. Hillary Clinton should win more states and win the popular vote by somewhere between 5-8 points. But, because the Democratic primary votes are mostly on a proportional basis (i. e., by congressional district), the “pledged delegates” (the people you are voting for) break about 50-50, so the current state of the race won’t change much at all. Currently Obama has a small lead in pledged delegates, but Clinton being ahead due to the super delegates that we don’t vote for.

Example: in my district, there are 4 delegates and Obama has a lead. Clinton hits 15%: she gets 1 of the 4. If she hits 37.5 %, she splits the delegates evenly, even though she has gotten blown out.

So, I don’t look for the situation to change much; the race for delegates will pretty much remain even. As far as the states, here is my wild guess:

Obama States: Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, Idaho, Alaska, Utah, North Dakota.
Clinton States: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Okahoma, Tennessee.
Toss up: Connecticut.

This is from an Obama rally in Boise, Idaho. (larger image)

There are many arguments for Obama; here is one that Friendly Atheist links to.

Christian Democrats fear that by wearing their faith on their sleeves, they will be be painted by their fellow progressives with the same brush as the James Dobsons and Pat Robertsons of the world. This is, I believe, the real shame of our “big tent” of a party.

…

… only Senator Obama offers the possibility of an America which can put aside ideological differences from time to time and work for the common good. Most importantly, as a Progressive Christian, I believe Senator Obama, who is a devout member of the United Church of Christ, will be a President who has the ability and inspirational leadership to create an America where people of all faiths will really and truly be welcomed with open arms into the Democratic Party.

For yet another summary with polls galore, see Election 2008.

They note on the Republican race:

Many prominent conservatives, including Ann Coulter, James Dobson, Rush Limbaugh, and Pat Toomey, have a visceral hatred of John McCain, which is going to be a big problem if he is the nominee (see also here and here). All of them hate Hillary Clinton, too, and probably could learn to hate Barack Obama if he is their opponent. One of the arguments that Republicans have been making about why they will win this year is how Hillary Clinton will unite their party like never before. Unless John McCain divides it like never before. Which hate is stronger? In any event, there is likely to be a lot of hate this year.

Yes, they are fighting with each other. Huckabee has gone after Romney

Mike Huckabee, frustrated with the argument brought by his rival Mitt Romney , and some conservative commentators, that a vote for Huckabee would split votes from Romney, and help front runner John McCain, fired back, hitting Romney’s record head on.

”Actually a vote for me is a vote for me. A vote for Mitt Romney may be a vote for Hillary Clinton, because the fact is I’ve got a far more conservative record than Mitt Romney ever dreamed of having,”Huckabee said.” Where people can come up with branding him a conservative is really, I think, tantamount to requiring an extraordinary amount of imagination.”

Follow the link to see the video.

What about Ron Paul? Read about a rather interesting source of his campaign funds: Fairfield, Iowa?

Today’s Washington Post has an interesting graphic in its dead-tree edition that, among other things, lists the top five ZIP Codes in terms of total Q4 donations to each of the presidential candidates. Unfortunately, as is so often the case, washingtonpost.com and the WaPo itself don’t seem to coordinate on content, and the graphic doesn’t appear to be accessible electronically. The raw data on Q4 donations is available on the Post site, but without the top five ZIP Code listings.

In any event, the graphic tells us that most of the candidates’ top two ZIP Codes are in very big or very rich cities — Dallas for Huckabee, Greenwich for McCain, Beverly Hills for Rudy — but Ron Paul’s number 2 ZIP was 52556 — tiny Fairfield, IA. Paul also won the caucus in Fairfield. There’s just one notable thing about Fairfield, a town of around 9,000 souls — it’s the home of the American operations of the Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, best known as the one-time spiritual guru of the Beatles.

Note: there used to be a fun ultra series in Fairfield Iowa called the Fairfield Trail runs. I’ve done the 50K twice. I wish this race would return.

Humor (yes, religious content)

Evidently “god” has taken sides:

As far as this upcoming primary election, I got a special message from my deity:

Hmmm, Obama seems to be doing better at the moment; I wonder what this says about the strengths of our respective deities?

Of course, cynics abound.

For more laughs, watch a replay of the last Republican Debate: (the sparks fly in part 1, 7 and

Part I. About 3 minutes into it, they get asked “are you better off now than 8 years ago?” Watch Romney and McCain’s answers. McCain answers 5:30 into it. He says we are better off. Huckabee’s answer is ok. Paul, is Paul. But watch the question right at the end…

Then watch the beginning of this one. See the contempt that McCain has for Romeny? That little laugh…

Now onto part III:

Part IV:

Part V.

Part 6:

Part 7: here we get to Iraq: early on, the sparks fly, especially 4 minutes into it!

Part 8. The sparks continue, McCain and Romney really go at it!

You can find the rest of them here.