2008 Presidential Race: my worst nightmare

(note: Hillary Clinton’s photo gallery is here)

First some disclaimers: the 2008 primaries have a long way to go; Clinton does not have it wrapped up yet, and the Republican race is likewise undecided.

Also, I am the guy who was actually afraid of Fred Thompson.

So my analysis, ok, rambling thoughts, are worth exactly what you are paying to read them.

So here goes:

Frankly, I think that the Republicans would be dumb not to nominate John McCain; that guy could well draw enough independent voters and Democratic voters to win, provided the Democratic nominee were Hillary Clinton.

On one hand, HRC would win over many Republican and Independent women, especially if it appears that “the boys” are picking on her:

Will women vote for Hillary Clinton only because she’s a woman?

That question keeps getting bounced around and I’ve recently revised my answer from “no” to “yes.”

That is, yes, women will vote for Clinton because she’s a woman — if men target her as a woman.

Translation: Gentlemen, if you don’t want another Clinton in the White House, do not say unkind things about her persona, demeanor, appearance — even if bull’s-eye true. Not even in your own kitchen with your own wife.

Women have radar for anti-woman sentiments — and all guys have them to some degree. Blame Mom, if you haven’t already. And no one has benefited more from being a victim than the candidate formerly known as Hillary Rodham Clinton. [...]

When Clinton’s campaign recently played the victim card following a debate in which the other top Democratic candidates “piled on,” they misspent her gender equity. The men weren’t piling on because she’s a woman, but because she’s the leading candidate, as Clinton subsequently acknowledged.

Invoking sexism was a risky strategy that almost worked, but not quite. Enough women navigate all-male boardrooms without needing special protections. They and others in more traditional roles were surely insulted by the implication that a woman running for president needs special handling. They’ve come too far to bat those lashes.

But. Let men criticize Clinton personally and a funny thing happens. Contaminating the air is a slight whiff of misogyny that women recognize and recoil against. When men speak derogatorily about Clinton’s looks, all women feel a little bit wounded. What woman can withstand such scrutiny, after all? [...]

Bottom line: What women have in common with Hillary Clinton will always exceed what they have in common with men. This is powder room wisdom. Two women can disagree on the most controversial issues at the table, but when they head to the ladies’ room, inevitably together, they see eyeball to eyeball real fast over the most basic, and ultimately most important, matters.

Hair, for instance. But also, seriously, children, family, life, love and those mysterious creatures — men. Women may cut each other’s throat for a man’s affections, but most will also come to a sister’s aid when men behave badly. It’s human nature to empathize with the pain of those most like us. [...]

On the other hand, in a McCain-Clinton race, male independents and even many male Democrats will desert her in droves. No, I am not saying that I will; in fact I will vote for her.

But this is a common theme that you see, even on places like the Daily Kos.

Some of it will be because McCain is a genuine hero that is respected by many. But some of it will be a reaction to sentiments like those expressed in this blog and to things like this.

This race, if it indeed happens, will be one of the biggest male-female foodfights we’ve seen in a while. This race would be difficult to poll too; in my opinion, many “pw-ed” men, in the presence of their wives, will say that they are voting for Clinton but won’t, and the reverse will be true for women who are married to domineering men.

So, if this is what we end up with, my “public” campaign service would be limited to working the Senator Durbin reelection campaign and with our local State House race.

But my contribution to the Clinton campaign, besides my vote, will be limited to sending them a bit of change here, maybe some discretely made calls there (you can often use your cell phone minutes for campaign work; mostly you’d call fellow Democrats to remind them of an event or rally).

But in public, I’ll be keeping my big mouth shut (for once in my life).