Freezing my butt for Barack

Ok, the Nevada caucus count is well underway, and with about 70% reporting, it appears that HRC will win; right now it is 50-45:

As the polls predicted, Hillary is going to win this thing. So apparently, the polls get it right every once in a while…

68.97 percent of precincts reporting

Clinton 50.18
Obama 45.16
Edwards 4.39

One more results thread and then I’m heading out for a bit.

87.41 percent of precincts reporting

Clinton 50.74
Obama 45.12
Edwards 3.79

1.) What’s interesting about this whole affair is that neither Clinton nor Barack are delivering knockout blows. Hillary will likely emerge with a couple more delegates than Barack, but nothing to essentially knock him out of the race. He’s got plenty of cash to go on. She certainly does. This race can drag out for a long time.

Two brokered convetions in the same year? Wouldn’t that be something!

2.) Edwards did poorly in a state that was once supposed to be a stronghold because of its strong labor presence. His numbers were better than 4% — the caucus rules forced his supporters to pick one of the other candidates because of a lack of viability. But still, this isn’t going to do much for his stalling effort. And with polling in the teens in his home state of South Carolina, this may be the last week of his campaign.

Evidently it ended 51-45.

But oh boy, is there some major complaining going on. That is mostly because the last Kos straw pool had it 41-38-13-5-3 with 41 for O, 38 for JRE, 13 for HRC, 5 for DK and 3 undecided/no clue/Gravel. There aren’t many HRC supporters there, but what they lack in numbers, they make up for in being vocal. And there are supporters of all candidates who are downright obnoxious.

There are some disappointed Obama supporters on the Kos, but many of us called it this way (see a previous entry)

But you know what is ironic? Obama won more NATIONAL DELEGATES, 13-12.

Yes, that is right: HRC won more state caucus delegates, but O gets the national delegate nod.

If this seems strange, well, let’s see what could happen in a proportional delegate by district state, like Illinois. Suppose that in all but one district in Illinois (and assume 4 delegates per district), suppose O wins 62-38. Then O is way ahead in the popular vote, but even with HRC in delegates. Then in the remaining district, HRC wins 63-37. Then she gets 3 of the 4 delegates, and she ends up with more delegates, even though O won the state handily.

Anyway, something like this happened in Nevada (though not exactly, as it was a caucus state).

Today, I walked for Obama; it was 4 F when we started.

If you are wondering if you should take part in a “primary canvass” I’ll say: YES.

There are many reasons why.

• You’ll meet some cool, like minded people that you might not have met otherwise. Today, I was partnered with Mindy, who works in a law office.
• You’ll be mostly going to the houses of people who have voted in a Democratic primary before; hence you’ll be talking to people who are mostly happy to see you.
• You’ll feel good about yourself when you finish
• If nothing else, you’ll get some exercise

So, go ahead and freeze your butt for Barack, or say hello for Hillary (or for my Republican friends, march the miles for Mitt, or jingle the doorbell for John, make the miles for Mike, or rack up support for Rudy), do it. You’ll be glad that you did.