Democratic Debate: Live Blogging. Part I.

I apologize for this steam of consciousness mode; I know that I will probably make some grammatical mistakes.

New York Times Preview

Obama is being watched closely:

It seems hard to believe that after SO many debates this year, that another one could provoke more than just a yawn. But it seems fair to say that the Democratic debate taking place in Philadelphia tonight, televised on MSNBC starting at 9 p.m. Eastern, may be the most eagerly anticipated forum of this year.

That is because of Senator Barack Obama. Last Friday, Mr. Obama –- whose campaign has been, for the most part, studiously non-confrontational -– gave an interview in which he attacked the credibility Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, ticking off a string of disagreements with her as he proclaimed that “the time has come” to start distinguishing himself from his opponents.

And it’s not only Mr. Obama. John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, has himself turned up the temperature on his attacks on Mrs. Clinton.

That’s what you need to know: Here’s what to look for.

Mr. Obama. Will he pull the trigger? Will Mr. Obama say on television, in front of Mrs. Clinton, some of the things he said in the interview with two New York Times reporters aboard his plane last week? (Read the excerpts.) Mr. Obama has appeared to struggle from the start of this campaign with how to marry what he has promised to be a new approach to politics -– free of the partisan bitterness that has marked presidential campaigns for so long -– with what it takes to actually win a presidential race.

For a while, judging by the crowds he drew, the number of small contributors who flocked to his campaign, and some polls, it appeared that Democrats were rallying around this new voice. But Mr. Obama has watched as Mrs. Clinton has pulled way ahead of him in national polls and polls in New Hampshire, even as he has remained strong in Iowa. Many of his own supporters have expressed frustration that he has not highlighted his differences with Mrs. Clinton or verbalized the reservations many Democrats have about Mrs. Clinton

The trick for Mr. Obama is to find a way to make these attacks without appearing that he has have abandoned the “politics of hope” message he brought in the front of the race in response to polls. Candidates who go on the attack tend to find that voter opinion of them turns more unfavorable; Mr. Obama would appear to be particularly at risk of this.

Mr. Obama’s advisers are calculating that at some point, the initial story line that Mr. Obama is drawing differences with Mrs. Clinton in response to his poll numbers will fade, and that Democrats will begin considering the criticisms he is making of her. Still, it is not an easy task Mr. Obama faces tonight, and especially challenging one for someone who is making his first run for national office and may not yet have risen to his full potential as a candidate.

And the Clinton campaign is not making it easy for him; it posted a video on YouTube and its Web site this morning showing Mr. Obama, in a memorable speech at the Democratic National Committee earlier this year, talking about how he was not going to attack his opponents and did not even think Democrats should be looking to attack Republicans. That message drew a warm response that morning, but it is part of why he is in something of a box today.

Oh, one other thing: It is of course possible that Mr. Obama will end up not pulling the trigger. That would give late-night TV hosts, columnists and television commentators plenty of fodder for a few more days of Obambi-bashing

We’ll see; here we go!

Obama is up first. First, he is asked about how he differs from Senator Clinton, and how she is “like a Republican”. Obama starts with a joke; says this is Rocky vs. Apollo Creed with his being Rocky!

He accuses Clinton of flip flopping on NAFTA and the Iraq war.
Clinton says that the Republicans don’t see it that way; as evidence she says that the Republicans have gone after her; she did not counter his charge directly.

Edwards: asked about his accusation that Clinton has engaged in double talk. Edwards talks about Bush destroying the trust between the public and the office. Edwards said that Clinton is defending a corrupt, broken system, and says that Clinton will keep troops there. Edwards hammers on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. He gets her on social security.

Clinton doesn’t counter directly, but talks about her record and says that she has stood up to the administration. She appeals to Bill Clinton’s record. She talks about no-bid contracts and tax increases on the wealthy.

Clinton is asked about the Kyl-Lieberman amendment (which was condemned by Senator Webb). She says that she is not in favor to “rush to war”. She says that this is a diplomacy option. She says that this amendment is not an authorization for war; noted that even Senator Durbin (who voted against the Iraq war) voted for it.

Dodd is asked. He says that this vote will haunt us. He noted the similarities with the Iraq authorization vote; he said that we should have learned our lesson in 2002. He says that it was dangerous. He noted that Lugar and Hagel voted against it too; Dodd says that this was the time to show leadership.

Biden is asked: he says that there are consequences about what we do. He noted that oil prices went up as a result. He noted that Bush has been emboldened. He noted that there are consequences for Pakistan and Afghanistan (the moderates are put into jeopardy; this gives the appearance of a crusade against Islam). Biden claims that this vote has consequences.

Obama is asked about a “red line” for attack Iran. Obama says that we shouldn’t be talking about attacking Iran. He says that Republican rhetoric is a rejection of diplomacy; he says we need to talk to both allies and enemies. He recommends talking about both carrots and sticks. He says the resolution weakens our capacity to influence the region; says we haven’t tried as yet.

Clinton Says economic sanction are part of diplomacy. He says to put “everything on the table”. She says that the Revolutionary guard being declared as a terrorist group hurts them economically. She will not speculate about when they will get nuclear weapons; same as Obama.

Edwards Wonders how passing Bush’s amendment is putting pressure on Bush, notes the language is similar to the 2002 Iraq resolution. Edwards says that they have to say “no”; says that Bush is rattling the saber. Says the resolution is written in the language of the neocons and enables Bush.

Richardson Claims to have been the only one to have negotiate with the Iran. Someone else disputed this. He says that they can make some deals; nuclear power for potential for nuclear weapons. Says that he knows the region (U. N. Ambassador) He says that it will take skilled diplomacy; says that saber rattling is not effective. He says that we need allies, in particular from Russia and Europe.

Kucinich Says that we need to reject this move to war with Iran; he calls some Democrats are enablers. Talks about the policies of preemption. He wants to know when the Democrats will stand up to Bush and to try to impeach him. Got some applause.

Clinton Pledges to do everything she can to prevent a nuclear bomb. Edwards Says something similar.
Obama Notes that the question isn’t that helpful. Says that we will not be governed by fear. Says that we are NOT the weakest one but the strongest one. He mentions the erosion of civil liberties.
Biden Notes that this is a complicated question. Gives an example of why some questions don’t have a simple answer. In fact, he gives an excellent example; this guy is smart.
Dodd Says which one of them has the background and experience to make the best judgment. But he mentions that Pakistan is a bigger problem.
Richardson Says he would make the pledge, but to do it by diplomacy. He talks about loose nuclear weapons. The key, he says, diplomacy. Talks about how he brought people out of Iraq when Saddam was in power. He talks about his international experience. He talks about North Korea and how he dealt with them.
Kucinich Scolds the media for bad questions; urges media to not enable the run up to war. Talks about the non-proliferation treaty (nuclear weapons).

Clinton Kennedy, one of Clinton’s campaigners, said that she has never heard of Clinton opposing the war. Clinton says that she does oppose the war and will end it. She says that there is no plan in place to turn it over. She talks about assembling a team to do this; she says that there are problems all over the place; calls many places “tinderboxes”.

Obama Says her answer is not consistent with respect to the Iran Kyl-Lieberman amendment. He agrees that we need to focus on diplomacy. He says that we can’t just dictate. He says that the next president shouldn’t have been one of the co-authors of the Iraq resolution. He says we need to engage Iran, Syria and other countries.

Edwards Says that if you think that we should keep troops in Iraq and there should be no timetable for withdrawal of troops, then vote for Clinton. Mocks the “if we knew then what we know now”, mentions that she moves from “mode” to mode (primary and general); says Clinton is more of the same.

Clinton Clinton says that we should pursue Al-Qeda; how can one do that without troops. Calls it a limited mission. She says where she stands and says that it is nuanced; her withdrawal plan is “responsible”.

Break one.

Analysis: Biden gave the best “nuts and bolts” policy wonk answer; it is clear that she is a smart, knowledgeable guy. Obama came off well; Edwards landed the hardest shots, and for the first time Clinton didn’t really shine above the rest. She did ok though; her best line was the one about the Republicans constantly attacking her. That will play well. She also had the “the voters know my record” (though in fact, they don’t).